The hottest Tianjiao struggled to find the bottom

2022-10-23
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Tianjiao struggled to find the bottom under the financial crisis

200 the instrument that was verified according to its quality or performance design requirements became the hardest hit area under the financial crisis. Although Tianjiao rose 24% with crude oil in the first half of the year, the largest decline in the second half of the year was 65%, almost back to the price level in 2002. Due to the uncertain prospect of the automobile industry and the continuous decline of international oil prices under the pressure of slowing demand, Tianjiao, which has fallen sharply, will usher in the second half of the bear market in 2009 and enter a difficult bottoming stage

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high diving in 2008

the rubber market staged a high diving trend in 2008. In the first half of the year, it also hit a new high of 28500 yuan following the surge of crude oil in a virtual boom, with an increase of 24% in the half year. However, the situation changed abruptly. In the second half of the year, the rubber price turned sharply downward under the influence of the full outbreak of the financial crisis, and interpreted a sharp diving market. In just five months, it fell from the high point to the low point of 9000 yuan, with a drop of 65%. It is particularly pessimistic that, in the current global economic recession, the automotive industry, which represents the industrial economy, is still struggling, seriously suppressing the consumption of natural rubber. Even if rubber organizations continue to introduce price protection measures, it is still difficult to reverse the medium-term decline of natural rubber

it was difficult to find the bottom in 2009

after the sharp decline in the natural rubber market in 2008, the world started to stabilize the natural rubber price at both ends of supply and demand at the same time, which formed a certain support for the natural rubber market. However, because the financial crisis is far from over, the consumption of consumer groups led by the United States has shrunk significantly under the deleveraging effect, especially the United States is basically a loan Xu tongkao China Plastics Association modified plastics special committee consumer cars, However, the tightening of credit and the shrinking of residents' wealth have made it difficult to restore their consumer confidence in the short term. Although the U.S. government took the initiative to save the automakers, on the one hand, the U.S. automakers' business problems have accumulated for a long time, and it is difficult to completely improve their business status with loans. On the other hand, the government's rescue did not consider stimulating auto consumption, and it was unable to solve the problems of the auto industry from the root, resulting in the uncertain future of the U.S. auto industry

domestically, the market situation is still grim, the tire inventory remains high, exports suffer from many barriers, and the global demand has shrunk, resulting in a significant decline. The tire manufacturing enterprises suffer serious losses, and the operating rate continues to be depressed. Although the state increases the tire export tax rebate, a reshuffle of the domestic tire industry in 2009 is the general trend, which still puts great pressure on domestic natural rubber consumption

in terms of supply, considering the survival of rubber farmers and the difficulty of preserving natural rubber itself, the measures of reducing production and restricting exports of rubber organizations are difficult to have a long-term impact on the market. Although the later policies still have measures such as collection and storage to stabilize the price of natural rubber, the collection and storage only moves the private inventory to the national inventory, and there is no actual consumption. Therefore, the collection and storage can only stimulate the market rebound temporarily, and the actual supply pressure of natural rubber still exists, The medium-term trend of rubber price is still under pressure

from this point of view, Tianjiao will be dominated by sluggish demand and remain weak until the end of the financial crisis. However, due to the sharp decline of Tianjiao in half a year, its price has returned to the level of 2002, and it is unlikely to continue to fall sharply in the later period. It is expected that the bottom will be slowly and hard in the first half of 2009, and it will gradually warm up in the second half of 2009, but the possibility of sharp rise is also small, and the fluctuation range is expected to be between RMB per ton

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