The hottest Tianjiao market analysis fund frenzy e

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Tianjiao market analysis: after the end of the era of fund frenzy and speculation,

entering this week, the fund pulled out the false daily limit again when the Japanese glue futures were listed by using the January contract, so as to further cover its real shipping purpose. After the sharp decline of raw material prices in Thailand, the main producing country, for a week, the Ministry of agriculture of Thailand issued a statement to curb the panic selling of farmers. At this time, when the domestic Shanghai Jiao futures market was in full trouble, a sharp rebound occurred

on Monday, Shanghai Jiaotong and Japan Jiaotong both appeared the daily limit, and it was precisely on this day that the strong daily limit of Shanghai copper covered the self-help of the bulls in the Tianjiao market. Like copper, Tianjiao is also a mythical bull market commodity. With the fanatical ebb of funds, the hype era of the whole Tianjiao market is ending with the deteriorating capital situation in the world

just 10 months ago, Tianjiao started an incredible rise since 17000 yuan/ton. On January 20, 2006, the main contract ru603 broke through the integer mark of 20000 yuan/ton, and has been out of control ever since. Thailand continues to decline. At present, new energy vehicles are in the stage of rapid development. The enthusiasm of fund speculation has been increased again and again. Japanese rubber futures have historically crossed 200 yen/kg, and then moved towards the integer level of 250 yen/kg around the Chinese Lunar New Year. Thanks to the favor of private equity funds in Zhejiang, Shanghai Jiao futures once soared to 25000 yuan/ton. This round of speculation can be regarded as the most heartfelt one in the history of Tianjiao bull market. The sensational effect of an amplified Lido theme is like an atomic bomb

a price range (6000-18000 yuan/ton) in the past 10 years has been broken. Is Tianjiao really so expensive? According to the real commodity value positioning, Tianjiao is an agricultural product from the perspective of growth and supply. Although its growth cycle is long, it can be analyzed from the relationship between the seasonal supply and demand that determine the price positioning by taking off the upper cover of the reducer in a year as a whole. Tianjiao has the characteristics of both sharp rise and sharp fall. Compared with industrial products with relatively rigid supply and non renewable properties, this feature should no longer jump even in a bull market; There will be stronger price positioning flexibility

obviously, the price of glue can be fried to the sky when the supply is tight, or it can be suppressed to the floor during the peak supply period. Tianjiao rose from 6000 yuan to 30000 yuan, an increase of five times, which is second only to copper in this bull market. Cotton, which belongs to the same price positioning range as cotton in the past 30 years, has been far behind. Even aluminum, which is more expensive than Tianjiao in the Spring Festival, can only look at Tianjiao hanging high in the sky near 18000 yuan and sigh that it is inferior

however, what shocked the market was the market after May Day. Maybe even God doesn't know why Shanghai Jiaotong has seen a sharp rise from 20000 yuan to 30000 yuan/ton. What is the reason for this 10000 point increase? Rainfall in Thailand and weather problems in Indonesia are all hype topics. Actually? The strength of Japanese rubber during May Day and the crazy pull of domestic Shanghai rubber after May day cannot avoid the impact of the strong surge of copper futures. Copper prices soared, and eager speculative funds shot back at Tianjiao, which has speculation flexibility. From 20000 yuan to 30000 yuan, 10000 points took less than a month. The madness of the copper market infected the rubber market, and the price of Tianjiao was pushed to the sky by speculative forces. There is a glue price of 30000 yuan/ton in the futures market. However, in the real environment, we see a large number of spot trade import purchases. In the crazy may, Cheng computer will continue to collect all kinds of experimental data for delivery. A Thai supplier who has operated in the Chinese market for less than one year sighed that in the first five months, he sold a record 12000 tons of Chinese cargo. A large number of imported rubber with sky high prices are shipped in July, August and even September, which are in the seasonal downward trend. The tragedy of purchasing imported soybeans at sky high prices in the soybean market in 2004 will be staged again in China's tire industry. It is expected that this will cause the rubber price to continue to fall in the following August and September

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