The hottest Tianjiao short-term rebound is not opt

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Tianjiao's short-term rebound is not optimistic in the future.

after falling sharply to the technical support level in a row, Tianjiao rebounded sharply yesterday with how to avoid the easing of the trough in the commodity market. Among them, the main 811 contract closed up 2.90% to 22895 yuan; In recent months, the 809 contract also closed up 2.24% to 26680 yuan. And both showed obvious signs of reducing positions

market participants believe that the rubber market fell too sharply in the early stage, and there is a rebound demand in technology. However, due to the increasing supply on the fundamentals and the weak demand outlook, the rubber market is still in a long-term downward trend. The space for this round of rebound is expected to be very limited, and the funds on the contract in recent months may take this opportunity to make a profit and leave the market

after the crash, there was a technical rebound under the condition that there were not many test data and functional requirements and the digital display could meet them.

on Wednesday, the natural rubber market at home and abroad generally rebounded, and the Shanghai rubber market rebounded particularly strongly. The far month contract first rose, and the highest rose to 22950 yuan in the late trading, and finally closed up nearly 3% to 22895 yuan; In recent months, the 809 contract once weakened in the early trading, but it has also surged since then, with the highest rise to 26730 yuan in the late trading

insiders pointed out that although there was no change in fundamentals, the natural rubber market plummeted rapidly in the early stage, and its violent decline momentum has exceeded the previous rise. There is also strong support near the 22000 yuan level, resulting in a technical rebound

the long-term contract had been weak before, and the decline was relatively deep when it fell, so it had a strong trend in the rebound process. In addition, due to the serious inversion between the 809 contract price and the spot price in recent months during the sharp decline, the futures price also has the requirement of rebound and return near the delivery period. On the one hand, the strength of recent months has played a driving role in the far month contract, on the other hand, it has also promoted the large increase in the far month contract with relatively low margin

the rebound of oversupply is not high

however, market participants believe that based on the weak supply and demand fundamentals of the rubber market itself, the magnitude and intensity of this round of rebound is not worth expecting too much, and the overall rubber price is still weak

in terms of supply, it is currently at the peak of supply, the market supply is very abundant, and the domestic inventory is also accelerating. Data show that domestic static load testing machines from January to July also include: universal testing machine natural rubber (22900240.00,1.06%, bar), the total import volume was 960000 tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year; The stock of Tianjiao in Shanghai Futures Exchange also continued to rise last week, with a sharp increase of 6860 tons to a high of 34575 tons

customs import data also showed that in July, China's natural rubber import enterprises were difficult to obtain the first barrel of gold glue, which was only 130000 tons, a sharp decrease of 12% year-on-year. The decrease of import volume in a single month may mean the slowdown of domestic rubber demand, which has added negative sentiment to the market

according to the data, due to the increase in the price of refined oil, the domestic automobile sales situation is grim. Developed countries in Europe and the United States have more serious problems. The automobile markets in North America and Western Europe further contracted, and the sales of new cars in Japan also continued to decline in the first half of the year. This has also greatly affected the demand for tire manufacturing, which in turn depresses the price of rubber

Based on the negative factors of supply and demand and the adverse effects of the weak trend of surrounding markets, especially crude oil, li man, a medium-term analyst in Shanghai, said that in the short term, there is little hope that Shanghai Jiaotong will return to the bull market. The domestic demand in the third quarter will become a key factor affecting the future trend. If the demand falls as expected, the rubber price may continue to fall in the third quarter

due to the weak outlook, in the recent rebound process, long funds in recent months' contracts may look for good opportunities to leave the market for profit. Qian Yiwei, a mainland futures analyst, said that the margin ratio would continue to increase as the late delivery approached, which would also further reduce positions in recent months

trading data showed that the position of 809 contract on Wednesday decreased by 4600 to 55646 hands compared with the previous trading day, of which the top 20 in multiple orders reduced their positions by 1615 hands in total, and Zhejiang Yong'an, Zhejiang Dadi, Zhejiang Tianma, etc., the top positions, all reduced their positions in multiple orders by varying degrees; The top 20 empty orders on the 811 contract increased their holdings by 1031 hands. The future 811 contract may continue to lead the decline

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