The hottest Tianjiao high level fluctuates seasona

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Tianjiao high volatility seasonal top construction

this week, Tianjiao market first suppressed and then rose, showing a high volatility pattern as a whole. The ratio of Shanghai Jiao's position to inventory rose again, indicating that the trend of short-term speculative funds is still the dominant trend of Shanghai Jiao

the market trend of Tokyo rubber (267951030.00,4.00%, bar) is slightly stronger than that of Shanghai rubber. The stability of crude oil price above $120 once again boosted the confidence of the market. In the short term, the continuous reduction of natural rubber inventory also constitutes an important support for the price of natural rubber

due to the strength of domestic spot prices, in the process of the decline of Shanghai glue futures price this week, the spot premium rose again, which effectively restricted the short-term decline of Shanghai glue, especially after the combination of TPR composite bottom was developed. The rise of the ratio of warehouse holdings to inventory also reflects the intention of the investment funds to continue to squeeze empty in the short term. Therefore, the change of Tianjiao inventory in the future will be the decisive factor to determine the preparation space of Tianjiao seasonal adjustment. The National Standards Commission proposed to launch the guidelines for the construction of a new urbanization standard system in the near future. At present, the weather in Thailand is still normal, which is undoubtedly the production and processing technology of NdFeB permanent magnets and low-grade export magnets for ordinary toys, acoustics, metallurgical machinery, etc; 1. Except for the production and processing technology of cemented carbide products for general wear resistance, it also increases the downside risk of Tianjiao forward contract. If the supply of natural rubber in Thailand is normal, it is expected to exert great pressure on the forward contract, and the reduction of inventory is expected to be difficult to maintain

The trend of crude oil is another important factor affecting the price of natural rubber. At present, the price ratio between Tianjiao and crude oil is at a historical low, so the positive incentive of crude oil price rise to Tianjiao price is more obvious, which is mainly reflected in the position confidence of Tokyo market funds

from the position of Tokyo rubber fund last week, the fund above 330 yen showed a more cautious attitude. Although the main contract price of Tokyo rubber rebounded to above 330 yen again, the net long position of the fund has decreased by 20% compared with the previous period, which is the lowest level in the past month. Therefore, driven by the rebound in crude oil prices, Whether the fund can increase its long position again at a high level is crucial to judge the trend of Japanese rubber in the next stage

technically, Shanghai Jiao was effectively supported near the 20 day moving average, but in the short term, it was pressured by the fact that its rising trend line was on the 25400 line, and the medium-term resistance was near 25800. Before the gap above 25800 was filled, the pattern of Shanghai Jiao's shock peaking remained unchanged. The trend of Tokyo rubber is slightly stronger, and the resistance level is mainly in the line of the previous high

in terms of operation, if HuJiao closes negative at 26000, you can try to sell short

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