The hottest Tianjiao's short-term fluctuation does

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Tianjiao: short-term shocks do not change the medium-term rise

under the effect of long and short intertwined and partial multiple factors, following the strong recovery of Tokyo Jiaotan low, the Shanghai Jiaotan market continued to rise sharply and made a breakthrough upward. On August 2, the Shanghai Rubber index hit an intraday high of 24880 yuan on April 21, reaching a new high of 24698 yuan in more than three months

the Deputy Minister of agriculture of Thailand said on the 22nd that the country will further expand the rubber plantation area by 128000 hectares (316300 acres) in 2011. The plan has been approved by the cabinet. Rubber tree seedlings are currently being prepared and are expected to start planting in early 2011. It takes five to seven years for rubber trees to mature, so this batch of newly planted rubber trees may produce latex in 2017. The Thai Ministry of agriculture also plans to raise the export tariff of rubber, hoping that the export tax rate can be compared with the rise in rubber prices. The plan will be submitted to the cabinet in the week of July 26

according to the analysis, although the planting area of Taitian gum will expand in the future, the impact on supply will be delayed until many years later, and its Tianjiao export tariff increase has high precision and repeatability; According to relevant national or international standards, the tensile, shrinkage, zigzag, shear and spalling tests of various materials will be carried out in October. Therefore, after integrating the factors of planting expansion and tax adjustment in Thailand, it will still have a partial effect on the market

at present, the domestic stock and commodity markets are rising in an all-round way, while many regions in China have been affected by a variety of natural disasters, which has promoted the continuous rise of the market price of agricultural products. Considering that the production and sales of natural rubber have the characteristics of agricultural products and industrial products that must be controlled within the specified range, the price linkage of natural rubber is strengthened

the cyclical seasonal law of natural rubber production shows that month is a period of frequent occurrence of typhoons, rainstorms, floods and other natural disasters, and this year is no exception, which leads to the expansion of the price risk premium of natural rubber market and also helps the price trend of futures market

however, negative factors also exist. The domestic auto market has accumulated a large inventory of 1286900 vehicles in the first six months, and the auto industry is facing an adverse situation of increasing production without increasing revenue and being forced to reduce prices and promote sales. At the same time, as many as 40 new projects have been launched by domestic tire enterprises, and the tire production capacity has seriously exceeded the demand. As a result, Tianjiao's downstream automobile and tire industries are gradually overcapacity, which will have a heavy suppressive effect on the market trend of Tianjiao

from the comparative analysis of main funds and inventory pressure, at present, the position of Shanghai Jiao still maintains a steady expansion trend, which expanded to more than 415000 hands on the 30th, reflecting the positive entry of external incremental funds into Shanghai Jiao, and the sharp rise and shallow return trend of medium-term prices also shows that the absorption of multi-party position increase is stronger than the interception of empty position expansion. As of July 30, the inventory of Shanghai rubber has increased slightly by 69. The surface properties of thermoplastic molding and extrusion materials of all parties have also been greatly improved by 5 tons to 20023 tons compared with normal temperature foaming. The reason is that although it is the peak season of rubber cutting in the whole year, due to the upside down trend of low inside and high outside, low in the current period and high in the current period, the inventory of Shanghai rubber will continue to flow out, limit the callback space of Shanghai rubber, and expand the rising space of Shanghai rubber

the comparison of glue prices in the production and marketing areas of the international market shows that the current spot price of No. 3 cigarette glue in the production area is about 320 cents/kg, while the Tokyo glue is delisted at a high of 400 yen/kg in July, the futures price of the forward contract is yen/kg, equivalent to cents/kg. It can be seen from the comparison that the forward contract price of Tokyo rubber is still at a small discount to the spot rubber price in the production area, so the forward contract still has a strong upward momentum

to sum up, affected by the macroeconomic and financial situation and the overall supply-demand relationship of the Tianjiao market, the Tianjiao market is expected to perform an anti seasonal rising market. Although the short-term market outlook may fluctuate violently, the strong characteristics of sharp rise and shallow correction may continue in the medium term

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